he myth of watches as surefire investments has crumbled. The pandemic-driven, feverish demand that pushed resale prices to dizzying heights has cooled. No longer the safe-haven assets many believed them to be, watches are caught in a post-bubble reckoning.

Gone are the days when models from iconic brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet routinely sold for three times their retail price. During the boom, an influx of new buyers, flush with disposable income, scrambled to get their hands on anything with secondary trade potential, from high-end collectibles to affordable everyday pieces.

While fine watches had long held certain intrinsic worth as a store of value, the narrative changed dramatically. The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index reported an 18% rise in watch values in 2022, outpacing inflation and many traditional asset classes. Yet, beneath this surge lay an unsettling trend: watches were being pitched not just as objects of desire or family heirlooms, but as the next hot commodity.

The boom and the bust

The trade became a playground for those seeking easy wins. And the shift wasn’t entirely organic. “The market was driven not by existing collectors but by new speculators, and that’s never a good thing,” comments Paul Maudsley of Remontoire Limited, a veteran private dealer with over two decades heading Watches departments at leading auction houses Phillips and Bonhams in London.

Paul Maudsley (right) of Remontoire Ltd, a company that specialises in sourcing, selling, and managing collections for private individuals, offering a full spectrum of services from curation to insurance.

As with any bubble, the hype was short-lived. Rising interest rates, economic uncertainties, favourable returns from the financial markets, and a rebound of stock supply all began to ease demand and dampen prices. Maudsley remarks, “Some modern watches have since dropped by 50%!” He adds, “They should never have been that high to fall; it was clearly unsustainable, but some still entered the market hoping for a quick get-rich scheme.”

The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index 2022

Before the pandemic, the sector was largely characterised by passion-fuelled collecting, a culture examined in our 2018 article, “Why nobody talks about watch investment value”. “As any die-hard watch enthusiast will agree: watches, in general, are not good investments and never have been,” concurs Anthony Tsai, Client Advisor at upscale brand Bulgari’s flagship store in California, and former General Manager of luxury watch forum PuristSPro.

With recent interest rate cuts indicating inflation easing, Tsai believes that the opportunistic novices may be in for a rude awakening. “The era of euphoric price hikes is probably over, and those so-called ‘collectors’ who are only interested in watches as investments will likely feel some pain as prices start to come back down to earth,” he contends.

A soft landing?

The inevitable declines may seem like bad news to those in it for short-term gains. And while Swiss exports have plunged since early 2024, a less myopic view reveals more resilience than retreat. Data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) show that total exports ending in September 2024 amounted to CHF 19.18 billion. This positions full-year figures to align closely with pre-pandemic levels in a marked recalibration.

Buyers still abound, and interest remains robust. Global market tracking site EveryWatch reports a nearly 50% increase year-on-year in auction trade volumes for the first three quarters. Phillips Watches confirms stellar performance; after 2023 ranked as its second most successful year, 2024 has seen record prices and a 99% sell-through rate across key locations. New York, in particular, boasts three and a half consecutive years of white glove sales.

Gertrude Wong of Phillips Watches observes that collectors have evolved and become more discerning: “When an exceptional piece surfaces, the price speaks for itself.”

For true watch fans, including those swept into the frenzy as new converts, the price adjustments can only be a welcome change. “We’ve entered back into a buyer’s market,” declares Gertrude Wong, Head of Sale, Hong Kong, at Phillips Watches. “The correction certainly sets a great playing field for those priced out during the pandemic.”

A buyer’s market

With an expanded audience looking beyond financial allure, the industry now needs to reframe its approach to keep buyers engaged. “The current market is a strong signal for collectors to buy,” asserts Wong, adding that stabilising prices are fostering a sustainable environment, while watches are more available and accessible from brands than in recent years.

Wong further points to a defining force: “It’s the new dawn for independent watchmakers – more and more newcomers are entering the field. There’s greater creativity, individuality, and personality from all these new brands, and anyone can find something that fits their taste in this landscape.” And the record $8.4 million sale of F. P. Journe’s Tourbillon Souverain à Remontoire d’Égalité at their November Geneva auction – the highest ever for an independent watchmaker – certainly speaks volumes for the significance of this segment.

On the other hand, the vintage watch category has also retained its draw, underpinned by rarity and historical value, unlike trendy models that fluctuate with hype. As Maudsley, an expert in this domain, cites, “The secondary watch market at auction alone for 2023 was just under US$900 million, while the largest percentage [of sold lots] was for vintage pieces.”

Bulgari’s newest flagship concept features its longest façade worldwide and several firsts: a dedicated men’s watch salon, a client lounge with refreshments from a Michelin-starred restaurant, and exclusive spaces for high-end fragrances and leather goods.

On the brand side, from Bulgari’s world-class concept boutique, Tsai observes that buying interest continues unabated. When it comes to new or modern pieces, differentiation with a fresh, rich appeal can invite discovery and turn heads. He also notes that, “In terms of watches at Bulgari, clients seem to be looking at value in comparison to price."

A renewed narrative

Value has emerged as a common theme as the paradigm reshapes, with a more nuanced approach that enables buyers to connect on a deeper level – whether from renowned or niche brands. “Curation is key,” says Wong. “It’s not just about the watch, but the story it tells and its place in history.” She explains, “Collectors today are more refined, seeking higher quality, rarity, and provenance, thus ‘value’.”

The rise of reference sites like The Watch Library and Horopedia, along with data platforms offering watch trackers and price indexes, plays a vital role in empowering buyers. These resources provide detailed insights that facilitate informed choices. “The market is based on collectors gaining knowledge in each collectible field,” says Maudsley. This enables clients to leverage his expertise and select watches with a higher likelihood of lasting value.

The focus on transparency resonates with an audience driven by genuine intrigue rather than speculation. Brands have adapted by enriching their communication around ethos, product philosophy, and craftsmanship. Industry bodies, such as the Fondation de la Haute Horlogerie (FHH), are also actively educating this information-hungry generation, helping to elevate their appreciation.

The ultimate reward of acquiring a timepiece comes down to personal fulfilment, as Tsai advises his clients: “Buy watches that capture your eye. Look at the details, the finishing, the complexity of the movement. Don’t get caught in the games some brands play.” He adds, “Buy what you like, and make sure you wear your watch. Watches are meant to be worn, not turned into safe queens.”